A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
